Adam Grant asks:
Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?
Closed Jul 11, 2021 03:39PM UTC
Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, "space" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.
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The question closed "Richard Branson" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bezos | 0% | |
| Richard Branson | 100% | |
| Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 108 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 189 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
