Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 11, 2021 03:39PM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?

Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, "space" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.

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The question closed "Richard Branson" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeff Bezos 0%
Richard Branson 100%
Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021 0%

No. of
Forecasters

108

Forecast
Count

189

Crowd Brier Score

0.0421


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.076
2.
-0.076
4.
-0.074
5.
-0.072

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