Started Jul 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 11, 2021 03:39PM UTC

Adam Grant asks:

Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?

Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, "space" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.

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The question closed "Richard Branson" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeff Bezos 0%
Richard Branson 100%
Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 108
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.076
2.
-0.076
4.
-0.074
5.
-0.072

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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