Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 299
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.577
2.
-1.435
3.
-1.374
4.
-1.224

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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