Question 13 of 123 in In the News 2021
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

Tags
Challenges

As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Name Probability
Yes 8%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username