Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 20, 2021 12:30AM UTC

When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click "Vaccination State Data," which opens a daily PDF report, "Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination." Navigate to the "India" row and the column titled "1st Dose." Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).

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The question closed "Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021" with a closing date of 19 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 September 2021 0%
Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021 100%
Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021 0%
Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021 0%
Not before 12 November 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 411
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.347
2.
-0.316
3.
-0.315
4.
-0.311
5.
-0.272

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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