Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 18, 2022 11:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?

COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled "COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California" with the "Hospitalized" option selected ( The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.

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The question closed "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022" with a closing date of 18 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 September 2021 0%
Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 0%
Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021 0%
Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 100%
Not before 1 February 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 637
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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