Question 46 of 59 in In the News 2022
Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?

COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled "COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California" with the "Hospitalized" option selected ( The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 15 September 2021 0.00% +0.00%
Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021 0.00% -0.50%
Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 6.00% +0.00%
Not before 1 February 2022 94.00% +0.50%

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