Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 18, 2022 11:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?

COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled "COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California" with the "Hospitalized" option selected (COVID19.ca.gov). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022" with a closing date of 18 January 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 15 September 2021 0%
Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021 0%
Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021 0%
Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 100%
Not before 1 February 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 89
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 637
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.301
2.
-0.265
3.
-0.246
4.
-0.234
5.
-0.217

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username