The Economist, Private Superforecasting Workshop and belikewater ask:

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?

Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 19, 2021 03:00PM UTC

The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (New Atlas, Newsweek). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.

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NOTE 13 December 2021: As the CDC has changed from two-week to one-week intervals, the question would close upon a variant other than Delta next representing more than 70.0% for a one-week period within the range covered by the appropriate bin.

NOTE 14 December 2021: To further clarify the clarification note dated 13 December 2021, we are revising the remaining bins to align with the CDC's current practice. The third bin is now "A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022." The fourth bin is now "A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022."


The question closed "A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022" with a closing date of 19 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier 0%
A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021 0%
A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022 90%
A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022 10%
Not before 13 March 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 202
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 814
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.612
2.
-0.601
3.
-0.591
4.
-0.554
5.
-0.545

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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