Private Superforecasting Workshop and belikewater ask:
When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?
The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (New Atlas, Newsweek). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the “Nowcast” option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours|
|A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier||0.00%||+0.00%|
|A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021||0.00%||+0.00%|
|A two-week period ending between 4 December 2021 and 15 January 2022||1.00%||+0.00%|
|A two-week period ending between 29 January 2022 and 12 March 2022||5.00%||+0.00%|
|Not before 12 March 2022||94.00%||+0.00%|