Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 04, 2022 03:15PM UTC

In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?

In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (ABC News). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (Casetext, CNN, American Bar Association). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (Oyez, BBC). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 4 March 2022.

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Tags
Challenges
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 67.00%
No 33.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 182
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.177
2.
-0.177
3.
-0.173
4.
-0.172
5.
-0.171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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