Ist191 asks:

Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?

Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 25, 2021 12:47PM UTC

The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace,

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 24 September 2021: When launch, the question read "...before 1 January 2023." It has been revised to "...before 1 January 2022."

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 402
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username