Ist191 asks:

Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?

Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 25, 2021 12:47PM UTC

The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace, WebTelescope.org).

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NOTE 24 September 2021: When launch, the question read "...before 1 January 2023." It has been revised to "...before 1 January 2022."


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 402
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.033363
2.
-0.033363
3.
-0.027928
4.
-0.026336
5.
-0.025466

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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