Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 23, 2022 02:30PM UTC

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?

Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (Oyez). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (SCOTUSblog). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (Casetext, Supreme Court). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 23 June 2022.

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Tags
Challenges
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 81.50%
No 18.50%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 183
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.067
2.
-0.067
3.
-0.067
4.
-0.067
5.
-0.066

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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