Question 57 of 90 in In the News 2022
Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?


Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a "proper cause" for obtaining the license (Oyez). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (SCOTUSblog). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (Casetext, Supreme Court). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Current Crowd Forecast


+0.00% in last 24 hours

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username