Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 03, 2022 05:00PM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 (EconomistBudapest Beacon, CNBC). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them (New Statesman, The Hill). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.

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The question closed "A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)" with a closing date of 3 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more) 13%
A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats) 76%
Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats) 11%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 163
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 396
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.034
2.
-1.028
3.
-0.992
4.
-0.948
5.
-0.909

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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