Started Nov 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 15, 2022 06:00PM UTC

The Economist asks:

When will Lebanon next hold parliamentary elections?

Lebanese parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2022, though political and economic circumstances have raised fears that they may be postponed (Economist, Al Jazeera, The National).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022" with a closing date of 15 May 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 April 2022 0%
Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022 89%
Not before 1 June 2022 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 153
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 445
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.676
2.
-0.653
5.
-0.535

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username