Started Nov 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?

As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention (Deutsche Welle, Guardian, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the "People fully vaccinated" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.

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NOTE 7 December 2021: For the purposes of this question, a person is considered fully vaccinated if they have received a single-dose vaccine or both doses of a two-dose vaccine (OWID FAQ). This definition will control throughout the duration of the question. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.


The question closed "More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%" with a closing date of 1 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 70.00% 0%
Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 75.00% but less than 80.00% 100%
Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 85.00% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 647
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.119
2.
-0.117
3.
-0.112
4.
-0.107
5.
-0.102

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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