Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?
Closed Oct 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (France 24, Superior Electoral Court). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" with a closing date of 30 October 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Jair Bolsonaro | 26% | |
| João Doria | 0% | |
| Ciro Gomes | 0% | |
| Sérgio Moro | 0% | |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 73% | |
| Another candidate | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 187 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 668 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
