Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?

South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022 (US News, Korea Herald). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (Bloomberg).

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The question closed "People Power Party" with a closing date of 9 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party of Korea 19%
People Power Party 81%
Another candidate 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 303
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.395
2.
-0.328
3.
-0.316
4.
-0.312
5.
-0.233

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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