Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 19, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?

With President Iván Duque Márquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open (Economist, Americas Quarterly, Bloomberg). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.

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The question closed "Gustavo Petro" with a closing date of 19 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Sergio Fajardo 0%
Juan Manuel Galán 0%
Alejandro Gaviria 0%
Federico Gutiérrez 0%
Rodolfo Hernández 0%
Gustavo Petro 100%
Another candidate 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 426
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.302
2.
-0.289
3.
-0.284
4.
-0.276
5.
-0.271

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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