Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2021 04:01AM UTC

When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?

After South Africa announced the discovery of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant named Omicron by WHO, President Biden imposed travel restrictions on various southern Africa countries, including South Africa (Whitehouse.gov - Proclamation, BBC, WHO). Listed exceptions, changes to listed exceptions, and/or a change to the duration of the 14-day period would be immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Before 1 January 2022" with a closing date of 30 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2022 100%
Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022 0%
Not before 1 April 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.167
2.
-1.068
3.
-1.055
5.
-1.035

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username