Started Dec 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC

How many seats in the Assembly of the Republic will the Socialist Party win in the next Portuguese parliamentary election?

The next Portuguese parliamentary election is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (EU Reporter, Politico.eu, Politico.eu - Poll of Polls). The Socialist Party won 108 seats in the 2019 Portuguese parliamentary election (Assembly of the Republic).

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The question closed "More than 115" with a closing date of 30 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 96 0%
Between 96 and 105 43%
Between 106 and 115 57%
More than 115 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.582
2.
-0.441
3.
-0.386
4.
-0.335
5.
-0.326

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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