The Economist asks:

Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?

Started Dec 17, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 25, 2022 09:00PM UTC

On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country (Economist, France 24, Brookings Institution). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 164
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 468
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.249
2.
-0.249
5.
-0.248

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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