Started Dec 23, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?

The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a "tidal wave" of COVID-19 cases (CNN, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (UK Health Security Agency, see "Patients admitted to hospital" set to "Daily"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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NOTE 26 March 2022: There is an apparent incongruence in the UK Health Security Agency chart for admissions. The dates on the "7-day average" curve appear to be off by three days (e.g., the average it shows for 18 March is actually for 15-21 March). We have contacted the US HSA about the discrepancy, we will use the daily data as reported by the same source to determine the actual averages for the real dates for resolution. 


The question closed "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1,500 0%
Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive 0%
More than 2,000 but less that 2,500 100%
Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive 0%
More than 3,000 but less than 3,500 0%
Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive 0%
More than 4,000 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
average for questions in their first 6 months: 225
Number of Forecasts 451
average for questions in their first 6 months: 550
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.057
2.
-0.053
3.
-0.052
4.
-0.05
5.
-0.044

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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