Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?
The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a "tidal wave" of COVID-19 cases (CNN, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (UK Health Security Agency, see "Patients admitted to hospital" set to "Daily"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
NOTE 26 March 2022: There is an apparent incongruence in the UK Health Security Agency chart for admissions. The dates on the "7-day average" curve appear to be off by three days (e.g., the average it shows for 18 March is actually for 15-21 March). We have contacted the US HSA about the discrepancy, we will use the daily data as reported by the same source to determine the actual averages for the real dates for resolution.
The question closed "More than 2,000 but less that 2,500" with a closing date of 1 April 2022.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 1,500||0%|
|Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 2,000 but less that 2,500||100%|
|Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 3,000 but less than 3,500||0%|
|Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive||0%|
|More than 4,000||0%|
|Number of Forecasters||81|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 225|
|Number of Forecasts||451|
|average for questions in their first 6 months: 550|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||better than average|