Started Dec 23, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?

The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter (USA Today, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC, parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000" with a closing date of 2 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 900,000 0%
Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive 0%
More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000 100%
Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive 0%
More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000 0%
Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive 0%
More than 1,275,000 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 161
average for questions in their first 6 months: 225
Number of Forecasts 675
average for questions in their first 6 months: 550
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063
2.
-0.05
3.
-0.046
4.
-0.046

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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