Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?

In 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it (Economist, Radio Free Asia, Myanmar Times) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" (Myanmar Constitution). The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.07%
No 98.93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 307
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 888
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username