Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?

Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies (AP, BBC, The Hill). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.00%
No 100.00% +0.50% +1.00% +1.00%

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