Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 07, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?

Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies (AP, BBC, The Hill). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 7 July 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 600
Average for questions older than 6 months: 682
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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