Started Jan 28, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?

War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Guardian, NBC News, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.29%
No 86.71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 552
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.662
2.
-0.661
4.
-0.658
5.
-0.657

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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