Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?

Started Jan 28, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Guardian, NBC News, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.29%
No 86.71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 552
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.661835
2.
-0.660637
4.
-0.657822
5.
-0.65685

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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