Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC

GMR asks:

Between 4 February 2022 and 4 June 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for daily new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand?

While New Zealand has fared relatively well in the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of the Omicron variant has brought a new wave (Guardian, New Zealand Herald, covid19.govt.nz). The outcome will be determined using 7-day rolling average data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data, parameters set in link ('New Zealand' selected on the left side, Metric set to 'Confirmed cases,' Interval set to '7-day rolling average,' and the 'Relative to Population' box unchecked)). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 March 2022 would not be evaluated until 8 March 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "More than 20,000 but less than 40,000" with a closing date of 5 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2,000 0%
Between 2,000 and 5,000, inclusive 0%
More than 5,000 but less that 10,000 0%
Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive 0%
More than 20,000 but less than 40,000 100%
40,000 or more 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 403
average for questions in their first 6 months: 548
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.217
2.
-0.191
3.
-0.186
4.
-0.167

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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