Started
Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
•
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
asks:
Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?
Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals (Sky News, The National). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 (Parliament.uk, Conservative Party Constitution, see Schedule 2).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
---|---|---|
Yes, Michael Gove | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Jeremy Hunt | 1.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Sajid Javid | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Priti Patel | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Dominic Raab | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Rishi Sunak | 1.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Liz Truss | 3.00% | +1.00% |
Yes, Tom Tugendhat | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, Nadhim Zahawi | 0.00% | +0.00% |
Yes, someone else | 2.00% | +0.00% |
No | 93.00% | -1.00% |