Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 02, 2022 04:00PM UTC

asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?

Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals (Sky News, The National). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 (Parliament.uk, Conservative Party Constitution, see Schedule 2).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, Liz Truss" with a closing date of 2 September 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, Michael Gove 0%
Yes, Jeremy Hunt 1%
Yes, Sajid Javid 0%
Yes, Priti Patel 0%
Yes, Dominic Raab 0%
Yes, Rishi Sunak 19%
Yes, Liz Truss 79%
Yes, Tom Tugendhat 0%
Yes, Nadhim Zahawi 0%
Yes, someone else 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 195
Average for questions older than 6 months: 250
Number of Forecasts 1218
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.161
2.
-0.904
3.
-0.831
4.
-0.724

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username