Started Mar 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?

President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for greater NATO involvement in the defense of Ukraine (BBC, CBS News). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered "national military forces and/or law enforcement" (e.g., AP, BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.95%
No 97.05%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 229
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 1035
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014
3.
-0.014
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username