David Epstein asks:
Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?
Closed Sep 10, 2022 07:01AM UTC
As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (Defense News, The Hill, Atlantic Council).
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NOTE 8 July 2022: Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 September 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3.32% | |
No | 96.68% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 254 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 886 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |