What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?
Closed Feb 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 125.0||3%|
|Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive||81%|
|More than 135.0 but less than 145.0||15%|
|Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive||1%|
|More than 155.0 but less than 165.0||0%|
|Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive||0%|
|More than 175.0 but less than 185.0||0%|
|Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive||0%|
|More than 195.0||0%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||70|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 235|
|Number of Forecasts||481|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 651|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|