What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?

Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either "Excel" or "CSV" above the chart titled "FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms."

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The question closed "Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 125.0 3%
Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive 81%
More than 135.0 but less than 145.0 15%
Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive 1%
More than 155.0 but less than 165.0 0%
Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive 0%
More than 175.0 but less than 185.0 0%
Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive 0%
More than 195.0 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 481
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.226
3.
-0.182
4.
-0.175
5.
-0.174

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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