Started Apr 11, 2022 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 24, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?

In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (Politico.eu, French Ministry of the Interior).

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The question closed "More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%" with a closing date of 24 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 35.0% 0%
Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 40.0% but less than 45.0% 61%
Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 38%
More than 50.0% 1%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 120
average for questions in their first 3 months: 182
Number of Forecasts 346
average for questions in their first 3 months: 397
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.178
2.
-0.14
3.
-0.139
4.
-0.136
5.
-0.132

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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