Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen in October 2022?

Show background information

The aviation industry continues to recover from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout (Daily Mail, Travel Pulse). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).

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The question closed "Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 50 million 1%
Between 50 million and 58 million, inclusive 2%
More than 58 million but fewer than 66 million 8%
Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive 87%
More than 74 million 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 586
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
Navakoti
-0.177
2.
Aaron-Ho
-0.164
3.
ADON
-0.139
4.
MagicTheatre4MadMen
-0.138
5.
Fsugirl24
-0.106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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