David Epstein asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen in October 2022?

Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The aviation industry continues to recover from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout (Daily Mail, Travel Pulse). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 50 million 1%
Between 50 million and 58 million, inclusive 2%
More than 58 million but fewer than 66 million 8%
Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive 87%
More than 74 million 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 96
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 586
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username