Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 25, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?

Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (CNN, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Newsweek). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.14%
No 97.86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 398
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 975
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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