Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 11, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?

Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (Guardian, Yale Climate Connections). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.

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The question closed "Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.5 million sq. km 3%
Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive 9%
More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km 10%
Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive 75%
More than 5.0 million sq. km 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 340
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.089
2.
-0.078
3.
-0.078
4.
-0.075

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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