Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 11, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?

Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (Guardian, Yale Climate Connections). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 3.5 million sq. km 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km 23.00% +0.00% -1.00% +2.00%
Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive 62.00% +0.00% -1.00% +1.00%
More than 5.0 million sq. km 14.00% +0.00% +2.00% -3.00%

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