Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?

After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.38%
No 97.62%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 224
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 1423
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username