What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?
Closed Sep 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC
In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.
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The question closed "Less than 40.0%" with a closing date of 4 September 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 40.0% | 14% | |
| Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive | 77% | |
| More than 50.0% but less than 60% | 3% | |
| 60.0% or more | 0% | |
| Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022 | 6% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 23 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 74 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
