What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?
Closed Sep 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC
In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.
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The question closed "Less than 40.0%" with a closing date of 4 September 2022.
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|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 40.0%||14%|
|Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive||77%|
|More than 50.0% but less than 60%||3%|
|60.0% or more||0%|
|Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022||6%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||23|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 229|
|Number of Forecasts||74|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 637|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|