What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?

Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC

In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022" upon the announcement of that postponement.

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The question closed "Less than 40.0%" with a closing date of 4 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 40.0% 14%
Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 77%
More than 50.0% but less than 60% 3%
60.0% or more 0%
Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 229
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions older than 6 months: 637
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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