Started
Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
•
Closing
Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:
How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?
Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 13.0 million | 5.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive | 35.00% | +0.00% |
| More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million | 48.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive | 12.00% | +0.00% |
| More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| More than 16.0 million | 0.00% | +0.00% |