Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?

Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (FRED).

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The question closed "Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 13.0 million 0%
Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive 6%
More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million 48%
Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive 33%
More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million 7%
Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive 3%
More than 16.0 million 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 238
Number of Forecasts 455
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.19
2.
-0.19
3.
-0.179
4.
-0.171
5.
-0.153

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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