Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 19, 2022 07:01AM UTC

How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?

In November 2021, pro-Macron political groups in France formed Ensemble Citoyens (French for "Citizens Together"), a political alliance created in the run-up to 2022 presidential and legislative elections (Euractive, Guardian, French Ministry of the Interior [in French]. As of 6 May 2022, the seven member parties of Ensemble Citoyens were La République En Marche!, Mouvement Democrate, Agir, Horizons, Territoires de Progres, En Commun!, and Parti Radical (Ensemble Citoyens [in French]). The next two-round legislative elections are scheduled for 12 June 2022 and 19 June 2022 (French Ministry of the Interior [in French]).

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The question closed "Fewer than 289" with a closing date of 19 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 289 4%
Between 289 and 321 62%
Between 322 and 353 33%
Between 354 and 385 1%
More than 385 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 56
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 537
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.461
2.
-0.352
3.
-0.258
4.
-0.217
5.
-0.184

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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