Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?

Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (The Hill, Politico). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (United States Elections Project). The data will be linked as "General" next to "2022" and found under the "VEP Highest Office" (title may vary) column for "United States," typically in the first row (United States Elections Project - Numerator, United States Elections Project - Denominator). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 36.0% 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive 9.00% -3.00% -3.00% -4.00%
More than 40.0% but less than 44.0% 25.00% +0.00% +0.00% -3.00%
Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive 38.00% +2.00% +1.00% +5.00%
More than 48.0% but less than 52.0% 22.00% +2.00% +2.00% +2.00%
52.0% or more 5.00% -1.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username