Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?

Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (The Hill, Politico). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (United States Elections Project). The data will be linked as "General" next to "2022" and found under the "VEP Highest Office" (title may vary) column for "United States," typically in the first row (United States Elections Project - Numerator, United States Elections Project - Denominator). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.

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The question closed "Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 9 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 36.0% 0%
Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive 4%
More than 40.0% but less than 44.0% 9%
Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive 26%
More than 48.0% but less than 52.0% 47%
52.0% or more 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 379
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.14
3.
-0.135
4.
-0.132
5.
-0.13

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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