What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?
Closed Nov 09, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (The Hill, Politico). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (United States Elections Project). The data will be linked as "General" next to "2022" and found under the "VEP Highest Office" (title may vary) column for "United States," typically in the first row (United States Elections Project - Numerator, United States Elections Project - Denominator). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.
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The question closed "Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 9 November 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 36.0% | 0% | |
Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive | 4% | |
More than 40.0% but less than 44.0% | 9% | |
Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive | 26% | |
More than 48.0% but less than 52.0% | 47% | |
52.0% or more | 14% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 88 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 379 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |