Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein and belikewater ask:

As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?

An outbreak of the monkeypox disease around the world has raised concerns about a potential epidemic (CBS News, Politico, CNBC). For the purposes of this question, countries where monkeypox is endemic are Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan (WHO). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Global Health for confirmed cases through and including 31 August 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2022 (Global Health - Monkeypox Tracker, Global Health - Monkeypox Google Sheet). In the event of inconsistencies between the tracker link and the Google Sheet, the data on the map link would control.

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The question closed "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1,000 0%
Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive 0%
More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000 1%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive 94%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000 4%
250,000 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 795
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.134
2.
-0.126
3.
-0.12
4.
-0.12
5.
-0.115

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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