Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

kerryb asks:

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 4 June 2022, Biden's approval rating was 40.8%. The data for 31 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 November 2022.

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The question closed "Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%" with a closing date of 31 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 35.0% 1%
Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive 9%
Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0% 88%
Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 2%
Higher than 50.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 840
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.211
2.
-0.174
3.
-0.166
4.
-0.148

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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