Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?
Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
After remaining relatively COVID-free for most of the pandemic, an outbreak has hit Taiwan hard since April 2022 (AP, Focus Taiwan). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 August 2022 (Our World in Data, parameters set in link).
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The question closed "More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.8 million | 0% | |
| Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million | 100% | |
| Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million | 0% | |
| Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 6.3 million | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 216 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 143 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 607 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
