Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?

After remaining relatively COVID-free for most of the pandemic, an outbreak has hit Taiwan hard since April 2022 (AP, Focus Taiwan). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 August 2022 (Our World in Data, parameters set in link).

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The question closed "More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million" with a closing date of 1 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.8 million 0%
Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive 0%
More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million 100%
Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive 0%
More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million 0%
Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive 0%
More than 6.3 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 46
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 179
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 390
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024
2.
-0.023
3.
-0.022
4.
-0.021
5.
-0.019

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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