Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

EMJ asks:

How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2022?

Wildfires have already consumed over 5 million acres across the US as of mid-July 2022, with large fires still ongoing in Alaska and elsewhere (Axios, KTOO, Sacramento Bee). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 6.5 million 1.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive 9.00% +0.00% -1.00%
More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million 30.00% -3.00% -2.00%
Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive 35.00% -1.00% -8.00%
More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million 19.00% +3.00% +7.00%
12.5 million or more 6.00% +1.00% +4.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username