How many seats will Likud win in the 2022 Israeli legislative elections?

Started Jul 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Disagreements within the ruling coalition led to a dissolution of the Knesset and the scheduling of legislative elections on 1 November 2022, the fifth in less than four years (BBC, France 24). If Likud forms an electoral alliance, the total number of seats for the alliance's list would count for resolution (e.g., France 24).

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The question closed "Between 32 and 36" with a closing date of 1 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 27 7%
Between 27 and 31 53%
Between 32 and 36 40%
More than 36 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 33
Average for questions older than 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 136
Average for questions older than 6 months: 607
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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