Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 13, 2022 05:30PM UTC

Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022?

After parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021, the country has yet to, among other things, elect a new president (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, The National). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president due to vacancy in accordance with the constitution would not count (Iraqi Constitution).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.25%
No 97.75%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.796
2.
-1.735
3.
-1.209
4.
-1.129

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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