Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 13, 2022 05:30PM UTC

After parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021, the country has yet to, among other things, elect a new president (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, The National). The question would close "No" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president due to vacancy in accordance with the constitution would not count (Iraqi Constitution).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 October 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.25%
No 97.75%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username