Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (AP, CNN, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.68%
No 99.32%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 453
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003794
2.
-0.003794
3.
-0.003794
4.
-0.003771

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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