Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?

The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (AP, CNN, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 8.60% +0.71% -2.81% -1.03%
No 91.40% -0.71% +2.81% +1.03%

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