Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (AP, CNN, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.68% | |
| No | 99.32% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 140 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 453 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
