Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich) (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not count.

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NOTE 15 August 2022: For the purposes of this question, tear gas is not considered to be a chemical weapon.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.23%
No 97.77%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 139
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 653
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012
2.
-0.012
4.
-0.012
5.
-0.011

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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