Started Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 19, 2022 08:01AM UTC

How many total confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in the US through 18 November 2022?

On 4 August 2022, the US declared the ongoing outbreak of monkeypox infections a public health emergency (NPR). The question will be suspended on 18 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Our World in Data through and including 18 November 2022 (Our World in Data). As of 17 August 2022, there were 13,452 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the US.

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The question closed "Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 19 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 25,000 0%
Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive 100%
More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000 0%
Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive 0%
More than 70,000 but fewer than 85,000 0%
Between 85,000 and 100,000 inclusive 0%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 115,000 0%
Between 115,000 and 130,000, inclusive 0%
More than 130,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 246
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 526
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.042
4.
-0.035
5.
-0.023

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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