Started Aug 26, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Feb 25, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?

Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (Daily Trust, US Institute of Peace, Vanguard). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and "at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states" (BBC). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate 52.83% +0.02% +3.11% +10.92%
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate 20.75% -0.02% -1.40% -6.19%
Someone else 21.10% +0.00% +0.23% -6.61%
A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023 5.31% +0.00% -1.95% +1.87%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username