The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?

Started Aug 26, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 25, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (Daily Trust, US Institute of Peace, Vanguard). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and "at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states" (BBC). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023."

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The question closed "The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate" with a closing date of 25 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate 47%
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate 17%
Someone else 33%
A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.428663
2.
-0.42564
3.
-0.401179
4.
-0.309159

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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