The Economist asks:
Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?
Closed Feb 25, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (Daily Trust, US Institute of Peace, Vanguard). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and "at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states" (BBC). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close "A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023."
The question closed "The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate" with a closing date of 25 February 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate||47%|
|The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate||17%|
|A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023||3%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||144|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 216|
|Number of Forecasts||367|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 607|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|