The Economist asks:
Will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
Closed May 29, 2023 04:13PM UTC
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the AKP has announced that he will run for reelection (ABC News, Middle East Institute). Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2023 with the first round of voting to take place on 18 June 2023, and a runoff is scheduled for 2 July 2023 if needed (Turkey Constitution, see Article 101).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 May 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78.66% | |
| No | 21.34% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 253 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 951 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
