The Economist asks:

Will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?

Started Aug 26, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 29, 2023 04:13PM UTC

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the AKP has announced that he will run for reelection (ABC News, Middle East Institute). Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2023 with the first round of voting to take place on 18 June 2023, and a runoff is scheduled for 2 July 2023 if needed (Turkey Constitution, see Article 101).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 28 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78.66%
No 21.34%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 951
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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